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When to wait

We just stumbled down a rabbit hole we literally can’t stop thinking about via an enlightening article by Ethan Mollick on the concept of the Wait Calculation, originally applied to space travel.

The crux? Sometimes, waiting for technology to evolve offers greater benefits than rushing in with current capabilities.

This concept is obviously relevant right now to fields most impacted by AI development.

As we stand on the cusp of breakthroughs that promise to redefine entire industries, Mollick’s reflections explore the pacing dilemma in leveraging AI technologies.

Projects once assumed to be dependent wholly on human ingenuity are now within AI’s domain.

Mollick’s own experience—transitioning from creating educational games to leveraging AI for innovation—mirrors the broader, accelerating realm of AI’s impact across industries.

Yet, the decision to wait versus act is nuanced. The Wait Calculation provokes critical considerations: anticipating the potential of AI’s capabilities, the speed of its development, and the balance between immediate action and strategic patience.

However, Mollick also cautions against over-reliance on this calculus, highlighting the risks of learning and incentive traps.

In our rush to innovate, it’s vital to ponder: When should we leap forward with the tools at hand, or wait for the next AI breakthrough?

The answer isn’t straightforward, we must factor in the transformative potential of AI and the inherent value of the learning process for our own personal development amongst an endless list of other variables.

As we navigate this era of explosive technological advancement, success will depend not only on seizing the moment but also strategically planning for the leaps AI promises.

The future is becoming an increasingly unpredictable puzzle, where timing our moves could make an outsized impact on where we end up.

What are your thoughts?

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